In his poem The Road Not Taken, Robert Frost described the problem of standing on two different roads. Both looked inviting, but he had to choose. “I bought one less trip / and that made all the difference,” he wrote. Half a century ago, India and China were in a similar situation. Their fertility rates – 5.6 and 5.5 children/woman – are neck-high and well above the replacement rate of 2.1, keeping the population constant. They faced similar social and developmental problems as they tried to rebuild their country after being devastated by long-term independence and humiliation and actions.
China and India are the most populous countries in the world. For decades, both have worked hard to slow their population growth. According to estimates, while India’s population has grown and will continue to grow for some time, China has recorded negative growth for the first time in 60 years. According to Chinese data, there will be 850,000 fewer Chinese people in 2021 than in 2021. long-term economic impact on the country.
Slow and steady India
India has been running its family planning since 1952 and has chosen to walk the slow, steady, and windy path. It provided child welfare services, choices for parents about child protection, and the freedom to decide how many children they wanted.
The idea was not an immediate success. Population growth began, from 21.6 percent in 1961 to 24.8 percent in 1971, and the population increased from 439 million to 548 million, mostly as a result of the life expectancy – which increased from 45 to 49 years in that decade.
Anxiety about these rising numbers is palpable. So much so that after Prime Minister Indira Gandhi imposed a state of emergency in 1975 and removed many freedoms, the government used force to sterilize children, especially is a man.
Fast but tumultuous China
Although after 1948 Communist China invested heavily in infrastructure and health services, it soon needed to reduce poverty. very fast. In the 1970s, the country set a new age for marriage: women must be at least 23 years old and men 25. Urban couples are encouraged to delay marriage further. The fertility rate fell from 5.5 births per woman in 1971 to 2.7 births in 1979. However, this is not enough for China. Therefore, in 1979, he introduced the one-child policy, punishing parents with two or more children.
Also, forced sterilization and abortion tend to be less successful. In the 1980s, the fertility rate changed, usually just above the change of 2.1 births per woman. However, the early 1990s marked a turning point when the age was below the transition level and has continued to decline since then. China has now seen how this policy has backfired, resulting in a gender race with more men than women and a rapidly aging population. In 2016, he changed his policy to allow families with two children, and in 2021 he raised the bar to three.
India, not China, will soon have the largest population in the world
According to the United Nations World Population Dashboard, China will still have slightly more than India at the end of 2022: 1.4485 billion compared to India’s 1.4066 billion. But China’s population is stable and poised to shrink, while India’s is still growing—rapidly. More babies are born every year in India than in any other country in the world. (The UN estimates more than 24 million annually, but the actual number may be higher because many births are not registered.) And many of them are born in megacities such as Mumbai – with more than 22 million people – than ever before.
Compared to previous generations, these new Indians are more likely to give birth in a hospital than at home; will live to adulthood; most likely to be knowledgeable, educated, and multilingual; and most will move in their lives, to different parts of their country or other parts of the world. And if the efforts to eliminate female feticide are successful, the next generation of Indians will have more women than the previous years. Women and girls are the main beneficiaries of India’s population growth, and they are changing the country in profound and unexpected ways, observers say.
Fast but tumultuous China
While India celebrates this milestone in 2020, China is facing a population growth crisis different from the 1970s. The fertility rate has fallen below the change of 1.3, forcing the country to make several policy changes in the hope of improving the birth rate because it faces an aging population, people who do jobs are down and business is slowing down.
China has now realized how this policy backfired, leading to a skewed gender ratio, more men, and rapid aging. In 2016, it changed its policy to allow families to have two children, raising the limit to three by 2021. However, decades of criminal law restrictions have so fundamentally disrupted the country’s demographics that the effects will not be easy to mitigate—let alone. In 2022, for the first time in 60 years, China’s population will shrink – and by almost a million people.
Cities under pressure
Although the fear of India’s “population bomb” was easy, the region has already seen the pressure of population growth. India’s cities are the largest and most populous in the world and will become even larger in the coming years.
Although the fear of India’s “population bomb” was easy, the region has already seen the pressure of population growth. India’s cities are the largest and most populous in the world and will become even larger in the coming years.
India is still largely rural, with about 33% of the population living in urban areas, but urbanization is increasing. By 2035, 675 million Indians will live in cities, and the United Nations predicts that by 2050, more Indians will live in urban areas than in villages. The capital of India, Delhi, with its 20 million inhabitants, is already one of the largest and most polluted cities in the world. According to the city’s strategic plan, it should increase to 28 million by 2041. Although the fear of India’s “population bomb” was easy, the region has already seen the pressure of population growth.
